At this time last year, it was still unknown that a deadly global pandemic was on the rise, eventually stalling economic growth and sending crude oil prices into negative territory. But recently, oil prices have surged, with crude hitting highs not seen since before the pandemic.
A Hopeful Sign
Recent production cuts and a belief in the potential for underlying economic growth are spurring a rally. Although the demand for oil is still lower than normal, many investment professionals harbor hopes of a speedier than expected economic recovery thanks to the ongoing global vaccination effort. (1)
Oil Prices and the Economy
The price of oil can often influence the costs of other production and manufacturing across the United States. For example, there is a direct correlation between the cost of gasoline or airplane fuel to the price of transporting goods and people. A drop in fuel prices means lower transport costs and cheaper airline tickets. (2)
The Ultimate Lead Indicator?
Some investment professionals view the value of oil as a lead indicator. Whether or not this will remain true for the future, it can be helpful to remember that lead indicators should never be seen as infallible. Abrupt and unexpected changes will prompt lead indicators to rapidly recalibrate their expectations for the future.
- Barrons.com, February 8, 2021
- Investopedia.com, January 8, 2021
These forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, subject to revision without notice, and may not materialize.
Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax, or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.