A look at how variable rates of return do (and do not) impact investors over time.

What exactly is the “sequence of returns”?

The phrase simply describes the yearly variation in an investment portfolio’s rate of return. Across 20 or 30 years of saving and investing for the future, what kind of impact do these deviations from the average return have on a portfolio’s final value?

The answer: no impact at all.

Once an investor retires, however, these ups and downs can have a major effect on portfolio value – and retirement income.

During the accumulation phase, the sequence of returns is ultimately inconsequential.

Yearly returns may vary greatly or minimally; in the end, the variance from the mean hardly matters. (Think of “the end” as the moment the investor retires: the time when the emphasis on accumulating assets gives way to the need to withdraw assets.)

An analysis from BlackRock bears this out. The asset manager compares three model investing scenarios: three investors start portfolios with lump sums of $1 million, and each of the three portfolios averages a 7% annual return across 25 years. In two of these scenarios, annual returns vary from -7% to +22%. In the third scenario, the return is simply 7% every year. In all three scenarios, each investor accumulates $5,434,372 after 25 years – because the average annual return is 7% in each case. (1)

Here is another way to look at it.

The average annual return of your portfolio is dynamic; it changes, year-to-year. You have no idea what the average annual return of your portfolio will be when “it is all said and done,” just like a baseball player has no idea what his lifetime batting average will be four seasons into a 13-year playing career. As you save and invest, the sequence of annual portfolio returns influences your average yearly return, but the deviations from the mean will not impact the portfolio’s final value. It will be what it will be. (1)

When you shift from asset accumulation to asset distribution, the story changes.

You must try to protect your invested assets against sequence of returns risk.

This is the risk of your retirement coinciding with a bear market (or something close).

Even if your portfolio performs well across the duration of your retirement, a bad year or two at the beginning could heighten concerns about outliving your money.

For a classic illustration of the damage done by sequence of returns risk, consider the awful 2007-2009 bear market. Picture a couple at the start of 2008 with a $1 million portfolio, held 60% in equities and 40% in fixed-income investments. They arrange to retire at the end of the year. This will prove a costly decision. The bond market (in shorthand, the S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) gains 5.7% in 2008, but the stock market (in shorthand, the S&P 500) dives 37.0%. As a result, their $1 million portfolio declines to $800,800 in just one year. (2)

If you are about to retire, do not dismiss this risk.

If you are far from retirement, keep saving and investing knowing that the sequence of returns will have its greatest implications as you make your retirement transition.

▲ Sequence of return risk – saving for and spending in retirement

Poor returns have the biggest impact on outcomes when wealth is greatest. Using the three sequence of return scenarios – Great start/bad end in blue, steadily average in grey and bad start/great end in green – this chart shows outcomes assuming someone is saving for retirement in the top chart and spending in retirement in the bottom chart.

• The top chart assumes that someone starts with $0 and begins saving $10,000 per year. In the early years of saving, the return experience makes very little difference across sequence of return scenarios. The most powerful impact to the portfolio’s value is the savings behavior. However, the sequence of return experienced at the end of the savings timeframe when wealth is greatest produces very different outcomes.
• The bottom chart shows the impact of withdrawals from a portfolio to fund a retirement lifestyle. If returns are poor early in retirement, the portfolio is what we call ‘ravaged’ because more shares are sold at lower prices thereby exacerbating the poor returns that the portfolio is experiencing. This results in the portfolio being depleted in 23 years – or 7 years before the 30 year planning horizon. If, instead, a great start occurs the beginning of retirement and the same spending is assumed, the portfolio value is estimated to be $1.7M after 30 years.

The key takeaway to understand is how important it is to have the right level of risk prior to as well as just after retirement because that is when you may have the most wealth at risk. You should consider to mitigate sequence of return risk through diversification, investments that use options strategies for defensive purposes or annuities that offer principal protection or protected income.

Sources

1. blackrock.com/pt/literature/investor-education/sequence-of-returns-one-pager-va-us.pdf
2. kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T047-C032-S014-is-your-retirement-income-in-peril-of-this-risk.html
3. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/protected/adv/insights/guide-to-retirement

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Comparing their features, merits, and demerits.

How do you save for retirement?

Two options probably come to mind right away: the IRA and the 401(k). Both offer you relatively easy ways to build a retirement fund. Here is a look at the features, merits, and demerits of each account, starting with what they have in common.

SIMILARITIES:

1. Taxes are deferred on money held within IRAs and 401(k)s.

That opens the door for tax-free compounding of those invested dollars – a major plus for any retirement saver. (1)

2. IRAs and 401(k)s also offer you another big tax break.

It varies depending on whether the account is traditional or Roth in nature. When you have a traditional IRA or 401(k), your account contributions are tax deductible, but when you eventually withdraw the money for retirement, it will be taxed as regular income. When you have a Roth IRA or 401(k), your account contributions are not tax deductible, but if you follow Internal Revenue Service rules, your withdrawals from the account in retirement are tax free. (1)

3. Generally, the I.R.S. penalizes withdrawals from these accounts before age 59½.

Distributions from traditional IRAs and 401(k)s prior to that age usually trigger a 10% federal tax penalty, on top of income tax on the withdrawn amount. Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s allow you to withdraw a sum equivalent to your account contributions at any time without taxes or penalties, but early distributions of the account earnings are taxable and may also be hit with the 10% early withdrawal penalty. (1)

4. You must make annual withdrawals from 401(k)s and traditional IRAs after age 70½.

Annual withdrawals from a Roth IRA are not required during the owner’s lifetime, only after his or her death. Even Roth 401(k)s require annual withdrawals after age 70½. (2)

DIFFERENCES:

1.Annual contribution limits for IRAs and 401(k)s differ greatly.

You may direct up to $18,500 into a 401(k) in 2018; $24,500, if you are 50 or older. In contrast, the maximum 2018 IRA contribution is $5,500; $6,500, if you are 50 or older. (1)

2. Your employer may provide you with matching 401(k) contributions.

This is free money coming your way. The match is usually partial, but certainly nothing to disregard – it might be a portion of the dollars you contribute up to 6% of your annual salary, for example. Do these employer contributions count toward your personal yearly 401(k) contribution limit? No, they do not. Contribute enough to get the match if your company offers you one.1

3. An IRA permits a wide variety of investments, in contrast to a 401(k).

The typical 401(k) offers only about 20 investment options, and you have no control over what investments are chosen. With an IRA, you have a vast range of potential investment choices. (1,3)

4. You can contribute to a 401(k) no matter how much you earn.

Your income may limit your eligibility to contribute to a Roth IRA; at certain income levels, you may be prohibited from contributing the full amount, or any amount. (1)

5. If you leave your job, you cannot take your 401(k) with you.

It stays in the hands of the retirement plan administrator that your employer has selected. The money remains invested, but you may have less control over it than you once did. You do have choices: you can withdraw the money from the old 401(k), which will likely result in a tax penalty; you can leave it where it is; you can possibly transfer it to a 401(k) at your new job; or, you can roll it over into an IRA. (4,5)

6. You cannot control 401(k) fees.

Some 401(k)s have high annual account and administrative fees that effectively eat into their annual investment returns. The plan administrator sets such costs. The annual fees on your IRA may not nearly be so expensive. (1)

All this said, contributing to an IRA or a 401(k) is an excellent idea.

In fact, many pre-retirees contribute to both 401(k)s and IRAs at once. Today, investing in these accounts seems all but necessary to pursue retirement savings and income goals.

▲The power of tax-deferred compounding

Deferring the tax on investment earnings, such as dividends, interest or capital gains, may help accumulate more after-tax wealth over time than earning the same return in a taxable account. This is known as tax-deferred compounding. This chart shows an initial $100,000 after-tax investment in either a taxable or tax-deferred account that earns a 6% return (assumed to be subject to ordinary income taxes). Assuming an income tax rate of 24%, the value of the tax-deferred account (net of taxes owed) after 30 years accumulates over $79,000 more than if the investment return had been taxed 24% each year. (6)

Sources:

1. nerdwallet.com/article/ira-vs-401k-retirement-accounts
2. irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-required-minimum-distributions
3. tinyurl.com/y77cjtfz
4. finance.zacks.com/tax-penalty-moving-401k-ira-3585.html
5. cnbc.com/2018/04/26/what-to-do-with-your-401k-when-you-change-jobs.html
6. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/protected/adv/insights/guide-to-retirement

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Perhaps both traditional and Roth IRAs can play a part in your retirement plans.

IRAs can be an important tool in your retirement savings belt, and whichever you choose to open could have a significant impact on how those accounts might grow.

IRAs, or Individual Retirement Accounts, are investment vehicles used to help save money for retirement. There are two different types of IRAs: traditional and Roth. Traditional IRAs, created in 1974, are owned by roughly 35.1 million U.S. households. And Roth IRAs, created as part of the Taxpayer Relief Act in 1997, are owned by nearly 24.9 million households. (1)

Both kinds of IRAs share many similarities, and yet, each is quite different. Let’s take a closer look.

1. Up to certain limits, traditional IRAs allow individuals to make tax-deductible contributions into the retirement account. Distributions from traditional IRAs are taxed as ordinary income, and if taken before age 59½, may be subject to a 10% federal income tax penalty. For individuals covered by a retirement plan at work, the deduction for a traditional IRA in 2019 has been phased out for incomes between $103,000 and $123,000 for married couples filing jointly and between $64,000 and $74,000 for single filers. (2,3)
2. Also, within certain limits, individuals can make contributions to a Roth IRA with after-tax dollars. To qualify for a tax-free and penalty-free withdrawal of earnings, Roth IRA distributions must meet a five-year holding requirement and occur after age 59½. Like a traditional IRA, contributions to a Roth IRA are limited based on income. For 2019, contributions to a Roth IRA are phased out between $193,000 and $203,000 for married couples filing jointly and between $122,000 and $137,000 for single filers. (2,3)
3. In addition to contribution and distribution rules, there are limits on how much can be contributed to either IRA. In fact, these limits apply to any combination of IRAs; that is, workers cannot put more than $6,000 per year into their Roth and traditional IRAs combined. So, if a worker contributed $3,500 in a given year into a traditional IRA, contributions to a Roth IRA would be limited to $2,500 in that same year. (4)
4. Individuals who reach age 50 or older by the end of the tax year can qualify for annual “catch-up” contributions of up to $1,000. So, for these IRA owners, the 2019 IRA contribution limit is $7,000. (4)

If you meet the income requirements, both traditional and Roth IRAs can play a part in your retirement plans. And once you’ve figured out which will work better for you, only one task remains: opening an account.

▲  Evaluate a Roth at different life stages

The decision to make a pre-tax/deductible contribution to a Traditional 401(k) or IRA or an after-tax contribution to a Roth 401(k) or Roth IRA is based on the income tax rate of the individual at the time of making the contribution, and his/her anticipated tax rate in the future. The difference in tax rates can be caused by an investor’s personal situation and/or tax policy over time. This chart shows a typical wage curve and the general “rule of thumb” about what type of contribution may be most appropriate based on current income and the bracket in retirement. An additional consideration is to maintain a healthy mix of taxable, tax-free (Roth) and tax-deferred accounts so that you can have greater flexibility to manage your income taxes. The numbers on the chart specify situations in which contributing to a Roth option should be carefully considered. (5)

Sources

1. https://www.ici.org/pdf/per23-10.pdf
2. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gearing-up-for-retirement-make-sure-you-understand-your-tax-obligations-2018-06-14
3. https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/articles/new-401-k-and-ira-limits
4. https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-ira-contribution-limits
5. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/protected/adv/insights/guide-to-retirement

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Although annuities can be a useful piece of a retirement strategy these private income contracts do have potential flaws.

It may not be good to have all your eggs in an annuity basket.

Or even a majority of your eggs, financially speaking.

Fundamentally, an annuity contract means handing over your money to an insurer.

In turn, the insurer pays out an income stream to you from that lump sum (or from the years of purchase payments you have made). The insurance company holds the money; you do not. From one standpoint, this arrangement has some merit; it relieves you of the burden of having to manage that money. From another standpoint, it has a few significant drawbacks. (1,2)

Annuities are often illiquid.

If you run into a situation where you need cash in retirement (a major home repair, a legal settlement, big medical expenses), do not expect to withdraw that cash from your annuity. If you have owned the annuity for some time, you may have to pay a hefty withdrawal penalty to access the money. From the insurer’s point of view, you are violating a contract. Should you have buyer’s remorse and decide you want out of your annuity contract soon after its inception, you will probably face a surrender charge. If you back out after the initial year of the contract, the surrender charge is commonly about 7% of your account value; it usually declines by a percentage point for each subsequent year you have spent in the annuity contract before surrendering.(2)

Annuities come with high annual fees.

A yearly management fee of 1.25% or more is not uncommon. Then there are mortality and expense (M&E) fees, fees for add-ons and guarantees, and up-front charges. If you have a variable annuity, throw in investment management fees as well. The “fee drag” for variable annuities may effectively eat away at their annual returns. (2)

Annuity joint-and-survivor income provisions may not be as beneficial as they seem.

Many annuities feature this payment structure, whereby the income payments continue to a surviving spouse after the death of one spouse. The downside of this arrangement: from the start, the income payments are less than what they ordinarily would be. If you are the annuity holder and you think your spouse may pass away before you do or are already confident that your spouse will be in a good financial position after your death, then a joint-and-survivor annuity payment structure may be nice, but not really necessary. (3)

If you do not yet own an annuity, consider that you may not need one.

The federal government basically gives you the equivalent of a deferred annuity: Social Security. Like an annuity, Social Security provides you with a reliable income stream – and your Social Security income is adjusted for inflation. (4)

Think of an annuity as one potential piece of a retirement strategy.

See it as a component or a supplement of that strategy, not the core.

▲Understanding annuities: Which annuity may be right for you?

Annuities come in all shapes and sizes, which can often confuse investors. This chart helps to identify the type of annuity that aligns to specific income needs and tolerance for investment risk, and provides information about how the annuity growth and payout amounts are determined, as well as other key characteristics to know.

Sources

1. tinyurl.com/y9mukmp3
2. annuitieshq.com/articles/annuities-good-bad-depends-actually
3. forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2018/03/29/five-reasons-not-to-buy-an-annuity/
4. ssa.gov/oact/cola/latestCOLA.html
5. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/protected/adv/insights/guide-to-retirement

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.